Bulletin of the National

Radiation and Epidemiological

Registry

ENGLISH TRANSLATION OF RUSSIAN SPECIAL ISSUE

Moscow
Obninsk


Massachusetts
                                                                                                                       

Cambridge                                                                                                                                                                 

2002


ISSN 0131-3878

RADIATION

AND

RISK

Bulletin of the National Radiation

and Epidemiological Registry

Special Issue, 2002


Health consequences 15 years
after the
Chernobyl catastrophe:
data of the National Registry


English Translation by scientists in Obninsk , Nr Moscow , Russia

Edited by Richard Wilson, Harvard University

  Cambridge , MA 02138   USA


Editor - in - Chief

A.F.Tsyb

Academician of RAMS; Chairman, All-Russia Scientific Commission on Radiation

Protection; Director, Medical Radiological Research Center of RAMS (Obninsk)

Deputy Editor

V.K.Ivanov

Corr. Member of RAMS; Member of All-Russia Scientific Commission on Radiation Protection;
Deputy Director, Medical Radiological Research
Center of RAMS (Obninsk)

Editorial Coordinator

V.A.Sokolov

Cand. Sc., Biology

Analytical group of special issue

Cand. Sc., Phys.-Math.

A.I. Gorski

Cand. Sc., Tech.

M.A. Maksioutov

D. Sc., Tech.

O.K. Vlasov

Cand. Sc., Medicine

S.E. Khait

A.M. Godko

© Medical Radiological Research Center of RAMS, 2002

in cooperation with SPC "Medinfo".

ISSN 0131-3878

All rights reserved.

The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in publications.

The Bulletin “Radiation & Risk” welcomes requests for permission

to reproduce or translate its publications, in part or in full.

Applications and enquiries should be addressed to:

"Radiation and Risk",

4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia , 249036

telephone:(095) 956-94-12; (08439) 7-23-22

fax:(095) 956-14-40

telex:412633 INFOR SU

E-mail:NRER@OBNINSK.COM

"Radiation and Risk",

We shall be glad to provide the latest information on any changes made

to the text, plans for new editions, and reprints and translations already available.

Address for English Translation: "Radiation and Risk",

c/o Richard Wilson

Department of Physics

Harvard University

17 Oxford Street

Cambridge , MA 02138 , USA

telephone:617-495-3387

fax:617-495-0416

telex:620 28332

E-mail:WILSON@PHYSICS.HARVARD.EDU


Contents

Preface to English Translation R.Wilson .................................................................................................................. 4


 Preface
............................................................................................................................................................................. 5


Chapter 1

Medical consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl NPP: forecast and actual data

in the National Registry.................................................................................................................................................. 6


Chapter 2

Problems of nuclear and radiation safety : cancer risks from low dose exposure ............................................. 14


Chapter 3

Thyroid cancer incidence among adolescents and adults in the Bryansk region

of Russia following the Chernobyl accident (preliminary analysis) ...................................................................... 20


Chapter 4

Radiation risks of leukemia among Russian emergency workers, 1986-1997 ................................................ 39


Chapter 5

Risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer in the population of the Bryansk and Oryol regions

of Russia after Chernobyl accident (1991-1998 data) ............................................................................................. 51





Preface to English Translation

The world learns from catastrophes. Indeed,over the years when I have talked to victims of catastrophes I have found that they are anxious that the world learns what it can, so that their suffering may have some meaning. The world has learnt from the 420 cancers caused by the radiation exposures from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs in Japan and these data are used to set radiation standards. The predictions from these data are usually divided by a factor of two when exposures occur over a long period of time.

So it is with Chernobyl.Hundreds of thousands of people were exposed to the fall out and several hundred thousand workers (liquidators) cleaned up some of the area. Many people in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the west have speculated about medical effects and wondered wheter any could be reliably attributed to the radiation exposures.The issue is whether exposures at the much lower dose rate from the Chernobyl expsoures would give comparable effects.

All radiation scientists were alert to the effects of the released radioactive iodine.These are hard to tie down, because thyroid cancer is usually non fatal, and reliability of diagnoses and harvesting effects play an important part. Nonetheless the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer among children was unpredicted because no increase among children had previously been attributed to radiation. The increase in children and adolescents 0-17) is confirmed in the recent followup

In this volume scientists at Obninsk compare increases of thyroid cancer among adults in the Bryansk area of Russia with prediction and find no radiation related increase up until 1998. But a statistically significantincrease of leukemia is found among those clean up workers exposed to more than 0.1 Gray (10 Rems).This increase is in agreement with prediction.

Thus the followup so far (up until 1998) shows good agreement with the ICRP predictions based upon the Japanese data and show no suggestion that a modification is needed. But the latent period for “solid” cancers is only now being reached. The world will continue to learn from these data from Obninsk as the followup is continued.


Richard Wilson


PREFACE


The materials given in the special issue of the Bulletin "Radiation and Risk" are dedicated to the estimation of health effects that occurred in the 15 years since the Chernobyl catastrophe. The most important results of studies carried out within the framework of the Russian National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry have been included in the issue.

As of January 1, 2002, primary medical and dosimetric data about 585,121 people including 187,596 emergency accident workers are kept at the Registry.

The principal data of the issue were used by the Government of the Russian Federation for working out the strategy for relieving health effects of the Chernobyl catastrophe. The documents were used by the IAEA at working out conclusions of the International Conference concerning the problem (Kiev, 2001).

Editorial Board